Enda Glynn weighs in with his wave count for Gold. We note his emerging alternative count puts a potentially lower low than previously seen now in the $1300 range. This is consistent with our volatility assessment seeing a break of $1325 could lead to a precipitous drop. Worse, and something a flow trader we talk to corroborated earlier, we are seeing short lived bullflags that wash out pretty quickly now.We need some algo shorts to pile on for a bottom to be made maybe.
That said, another event related gap higher would attract interest on the weaker short covering side. We are thus now sadly dependent on ignorant supranational leaders actually voicing their stupidity to get people to realize how cognitively disabled our leaders are and why short term liquidity ( bonds) is not long term safety.
Of little help day to day but important for people carrying postions is that we see $50 higher or lower when volatility coils for its next run. . The volatility of volatility itself is increasing for option geeks and that means overnight postions in anything but options are no good for short term plays. Meanwhile, High vol-of-vol situations frequently end in option longs experiencing slow death In a a sideways market only to watch a 6 STD move after they exit their postions.
It's a day traders market here in gold (for us) and maybe a silver stackers market if you are peeling off profits in stock portfolios on new highs.
Special Note: this update is part of the daily report Enda puts out to premium subscribers. We are fortunate enough to be able to share it with you. If you wish to become a subscriber contact Enda Glynn at info@bullwaves.org
Good luck as always- Vince Lanci for SKG.
GOLD
GOLD dropped back into support at 1323 this evening after a short lived rise yesterday The wave structure still suggests an expanded flat correction in wave 'iv' brown Which is completing as I write.
It is worth keeping an eye on the alternate wave count which suggests that a decline in wave (iv) blue at one higher degree is underway. This would allow for a larger decline, Possibly back to 1300 again before completing it.
For tomorrow; [edit: Thursday in the US-Soren] The preferred wave count calls for this decline to halt at nearby levels, A rally in wave 'v' should begin with a higher low at around 1330.
[Edit-This also reconciles the previous call for a higher Yen last week which is playing out as we speak. The variable is time in EW- VBL]
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My Bias: Long towards 1550 Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside. Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550 Important risk events: USD: CPI m/m, Unemployment Claims.
GOLD dropped back into support at 1323 this evening after a short lived rise yesterday The wave structure still suggests an expanded flat correction in wave 'iv' brown Which is completing as I write.
It is worth keeping an eye on the alternate wave count which suggests that a decline in wave (iv) blue at one higher degree is underway. This would allow for a larger decline, Possibly back to 1300 again before completing.
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