9/11 Witness on Trump's Well-Intentioned but Mis-Guided Ban


Trump's Immigration Plan is Patriotic and Poorly Executed.

Upfront: I'm very liberal socially and have the CV to back that up.And am against Trumps Immigration Plan in its current form. That's my bias. But I saw a pic on Zerohedge worth addressing.

*Please excuse formatting as this was composed on my phone and I asked Soren to add pics and post for me- Vince Lanci*


TRUMP MESSED UPSay what you want about the language, mismanagement, execution, and blanket generalities of Trump's Immigration Plan. Feel free to call him stupid on understanding the branches of government and their roles. He either doesn't know or doesn't care to know. He is interested in pushing until he is pushed back. No different than a trader fishing for stops and resistance. Or a bully. But know this. The immigration reform is a step in the right direction. The execution was 2 steps back however.

Do our schools even teach Civics in class anymore?

h/t DFiles via Paul Kirsch


CULTURE CLASH, COMPLEX SOCIETIES AND WHO CONCERTSIt is not easy to create a plan to continue to permit immigration with such a large (20%?) minority of the potential emigres being intolerant of the country they are entering. You can't ban based on religion. You can't based on race. How can we know intentions?When a group is bent on evangelically spreading its intolerant beliefs, it's not unwise to put the brakes on things while a better filter is created. For example: Prohibit Salafi/Wahabiist which would be like banning hood wearing KKK members from immigrating.

Admitting too many willfully non-assimilating immigrants at one time is unmanageable. Intolerants who infect tolerant systems for recruitment are part of societal collapse.

from Tainter's Collapse of Complex Societies


ITS NOT %s, IT EXPECTED VALUE STUPIDIt is not an easy task. And to those who use statistics to attack Trump's (arrogantly, horribly ham-handed) attempt to address the problem, you are idiots.It's not about %. It's about VAR. in an age where a single person can be a WOMD, you can't risk a 1% chance of 5000 people dying.

Pic: On probabilities and expected values using imperfect information and insufficient data. Recommended reading for Statisticians, Pollsters, and Fed Economists. Trading Corollary: "If you would wretch to sell it, and cream to buy it, the broker is going to buy it from you. Fade him accordingly"


9/11 EXAMPLE: or TERROR STATS ARE USELESS IN SMALL DATA SAMPLES MORONAs a person working in the WTC (WFC) on 9/11 I actually asked myself and my team right after the first plane hit: "What are the odds of a plane hitting a tower?" The odds were low and so I concluded a Cessna.. and then watched as the 2nd plane struck from our window. After the 2nd plane hit: "What are the odds of 2 planes hitting?" Statistically astronomically low RIGHT? But that was the wrong answer. And at that moment I knew it was not plain stats, but Bayesian stats and VAR that mattered. (Yes we actually thought like this as global events happened even to us. Probably to keep sane)After witnessing 2 hit, my team and I fully expected more and made for egress. We feared the planes had anthrax as cargo too.And we were right about more planes, but wrong about where they hit.At one time I could flip a 2 sided coin and make it land on heads 10x in a row.. at what point will you ask yourself "this isn't luck is it?" I practiced it to prove a point to a statistician friend years ago. The point is statistics do not perceive intent. The coin has no memory, but the flipper has intent and skill. Randomness is not so easy to identify with small data.


TO MY CONSERVATIVE FRIENDS: ASK SOMEONE WHO LOST LOVED ONES WHERE THEY STAND ON THE BANMany of my colleagues lost family and friends that day. 2 people stood inches from me daily that died. Men on the floor lost parents that day. And yet I and most of the ones I still connect with are against this current "ban".So who are you to be “pro ban” when a guy who stood next to his brother at work for 10 years suddenly comes to work and sees an empty space where his brother used to stand? And yet that survivor remains steadfast in his opposition to the ban. Who the fuck are you compared to that person to judge? Have you even done the work and surveyed those most qualified to make an informed decision from their experience?Ask survivors, ask military men, ask people who have ground experience. Then decide. This is not a prediction of your results, just a plea to form your own opinion and stop copy/pasting partisan sound bites.**btw this is why modern polling sucks too**


TO MY LIBERAL FRIENDS-LET'S PLAY DICEPut in a very simple way as it relates to immigration. In "craps" snake eyes is low probability. But in immigration craps, you die if it lands on snake eyes.. want to play?It ain't so easy is it? 

h/t @zerohedge



Pic: Rosie is a dead ringer for Bannon and idiotTrump is a human red-herring who is trying (to his credit) to govern in P2P bottom-up fashion.To my dismay, his ego is preventing him from recognizing that approach's short comings. Fire Bannon, Donald. Or lose your mandate and risk losing the libertarian wing via Paul Ryan cutting bait on you.

Sincerely, Vince Lanci

(For Chi, Mott, and so many others)


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