Depicted: Gyges finds the magic ring
Intro: Voting is for Losers
What you are about to read is unadulterated conjecture written by one a new contributor to our group who goes by "Glaucon". He is in our opinion knowledgeable in complexity theory, risk management, law, and philosophy Glaucon is politically agnostic. He does not vote, nor does he complain who his president is. Much of what is written below is factually provable. Much is based on empirical evidence, background info from his contacts, and past experience. His play-by-play is just one way things can roll out. It is the intentions and mindset of the people involved that is key in this admittedly cynical Fourth Turning type of scenario. If you disagree and have something to say, write a rebuttal and submit it. Anyone can submit a post and do so anonymously. MarketSlant doesn't even track IP addresses. Grow a pair.- Soren K.
Remember when Trump was asked at his first Presser if he had any contact with Russia? His answer was direct and specific.
- Question: can you categorically deny any Russian ties- YES, no personal contact with anyone Russian
Remember the follow up? Not so much
- Question: Can you categorically deny any associates meeting with Russians? CONFERENCE OVER
Recap of Trump's first Presser here
There is No Superman
You are an idiot if you think Trump is about helping you. Trump is about helping himself. Now, if in doing so he helps the US, then that is not a bad thing. But really, what incentive does a leader have to shoot for that sweet spot where he does good AND enriches himself? Don't be stupid. Superman does not exist. Altruism is a fantasy. People do good things because it makes them feel good. As repulsive as Ayn Rand is to us on some levels, this is a truism in her works. Frankly we recommend the middle class read Fountainhead immediately and start thinking like the protagonist. The wealthy already do. Do not read Atlas Shrugged. It's tripe. And Fountainhead is a love story made into a movie. Grab your honey and watch it. Then act accordingly.
Trump is a businessman first. And that means enriching himself in his endeavors is top priority. That is not evil. That is free market capitalism. If he does a bad job, he doesnt get business. And that ideology actually works in a completely free market. But we are not in a free market, nor will we ever be in one again. So what does a man like Trump do when combating regulations that protect opportunists from gaming the taxpayer? He acts like corporations do; without conscience, without social contract and for shareholder benefit only. He acts within the law, because we are a nation of laws, not ethics. And ethics are relative and subjective. Liberalism taught us that. So can you blame a man for being a Business Socialist (aka NY developer)?
There is one thing seriously wrong with Trump's approach. He is not a corporation. He is a human. And therefore he cannot throw an employee under a bus like a Goldman can when accused of fraud. So why doesn't Trump take his face off the enterprise? Because he is an egomaniac. His ability to brand himself is a major asset that was driven by his ego adn need ot succeed. That puts a target on his face too. He is trapped. And so the clock is ticking on Trump. When he has done all he can and becomes a liability to the GOP, he will be thrown under the bus.
Paul Ryan and Trump were on the same page from day 1. Executive Orders were issued, Ryan was inline with Trump. And Ryan came out in support of Trump's immigration policies. This was not easy for him. We'd bet that Ryan threw his hat in the ring for Trump expecting a payoff. That payoff was in money from PAC donators like Koch. Watch now as Ryan slowly fades away from Trump on the immigration thing, unless Trump's revised bill is better. Ryan is a POS who sold out his Tea Party ideals for cash.
And Trump haters on the left, be careful what you wish for. Pence is socially to the right of Trump. Here is the recipe for total disaster.
Given these factors:
- Trump is for White Collar Welfare and US Business. He's for business, and that makes him whatever he needs to be, conservative, liberal.. whatever.
- Trump is no bigot. He hates everyone equally. He's a New Yorker. They don't have time to be bigoted. He hires minorities on the cheap.
- Pence is a social conservative, Bannon is a racist, and Ryan is weighing choices.
Phase 1- All your Economic Freedoms Belong to Trump
- Trump appoints a conservative judge
- Trump appoints 3 to5 Fed governors, all doves
- Dodd Frank is castrated, Volcker Rule is denuded. Bank front running is great again
- Trump rolls out the debt to the 100 year mark, adds fiscal stimulus in (perverted) Helo money, tariffs, trade barriers, and subsidies. HE ISSUES MORE DEBT
- Currency wars become trade wars.
- Trump becomes unhappy with Bannon for ideological, spotlight attention wise or some other reason. Trump does have the ability to feel shame as a part of his ability to change gears to get people to like him. Bannon and his ilk (HRC, Cheney, etc) are steamrollers
- Trump gets rolled for something like Russian business ties. His fellow GOP'ers turn their backs.
- Pence is sworn in
Phase 2- All Your Social Freedoms Belong to Pence
- President Pence starts the social conservative movement using money given by the business side during Trump's revamping
- Ginsburg retires, and the Roe issue is on the table again.
- Pence and Bannon are aligned, and the likelihood of war is increased 10 fold.
- the social right is energized, the working class is still enamored with "America First" as it slowly boils in debt and taxes
- Pence gets elected in 2020, and re-elected in 2024
Or Trump Could Succeed
- Lower our debt without raising taxes on corporations or people
- raise the median wage through forcing corporations receiving incentives to "Trickle down" the wealth to the producing class
- Retrain the disenfranchised workers in technical positions that support their robotic replacements
- Withdraw from the ME and spend that money on "shovel-ready" infrastructure projects. (not just new military stuff)
- revamp ACA which cannot be removed now, and will grow in need as Boomers retire.
To succeed he'd have to stop wasting time with poorly drafted red-herring Executive Orders, trust the people whom he delegates responsibility to, and related to that trust, pick people who are capable of implementing his strategy using their own tactics.
People like Trump prefer loyalty over talent. Trump's problem is he doesn't have the industry specific knowledge/ talent required to instruct his minions how to execute. The result is extremely loyal and very dumb (or devious) surrogates. Think G.W. Bush, but without a Daddy with whom he can consult.