Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and discusses the factors that he believes will lead silver upward.
Unlike gold and precious metals stocks, silver did not break out strongly on Thursday – although it rose, it did not break out at all, nor was volume exceptional, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. However, this is not a cause for concern, because in the early stages of sector bull markets gold leads, so we can expect silver to "follow suit" shortly. This is worth knowing, because it means that it is still possible to pick up a lot of silver stocks (and ETFs) at knock down silly prices before it really starts to move.
Silver's latest COT chart, like gold's, is most encouraging too, with the dumb and wrong Large Specs emboldened to try shorting it again – good luck with that.
Click on chart to pop-up a larger, clearer version.
Meanwhile the silver Hedger's chart is showing record bullish extremes.
Click on chart to pop-up a larger, clearer version. Chart courtesy of sentimentrader.com
On silver's latest 10-year chart we can see that the pattern may have morphed from what we earlier – and erroneously – thought was a downsloping Head-and-Shoulders bottom into a potential Double Bottom. It should turn up, especially given what gold and PM stocks did late last week. While this chart viewed in isolation doesn't look too inspiring, you will feel a lot better about it after you take into consideration the powerfully bullish COTs and Hedgers charts that we looked at above.
The conclusion is that it is time to take positions in silver, silver futures, ETFs and stocks before everyone else gets the same idea. Speculative short positions in silver are huge and could drive a big spike once silver really starts to move against them.
Clive Maund has been president of www.clivemaund.com, a successful resource sector website, since its inception in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London. He holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the UK Society of Technical Analysts.
Charts provided by the author.
CliveMaund.com Disclosure: The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund's opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund's opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.
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