The headline refers to the decreased volatility of gold, coupled with the increased Vol-of-Vol. spinning in place with knee jerk moves base on either some event (higher) or some no-event (lower). As we write this, Gold is twirling (flirting?) with our signal that volatility will increase on the downside. If it does not break $1321 on this bar, then the twirling will resume. Perhaps with a chance to rally on a few hours.
Michael Moor has us touching one possible exhaustion of the downside move already, so maybe we're safe. Maybe just buy straddles?
Click chart for live spot prices
Moor Analytics Weekly Macro Report
Note to newbies: Michael is not one for prosaic synonyms. His work is written for traders. You will frequently see words like "decent" and "warns" repeated. This underscores his consistency and agnostic work directionally in our opinion.
He is well known in the circle of professional traders for seeing potentiallly large moves before others. And his analysis helps prevent us from cutting profits short as we are want to do. We thank him on behalf of our community for this once in a while non critical synopsis to post.
He covers Oil, spreads, and Nat Gas on top of Gold. Hurricane season has been a busy one we imagine given the crack spread behavior in Oil.
Gold Macro Synopsis
via Moor Analytics
(Soren K.-Just a guess but trendlines, retracements of bigger moves, and flow spotting are a part of jos system)
Gold (Z) 9/15/17
On a macro basis: There is a macro resistance line coming in at 13522 all of this week. We will likely see a significant smack down from here, likely for weeks. A macro solid penetration above will project this upward $242 minimum, $339 maximum; the minimum to take roughly 9 months to attain. This is based off an oddly shaped but structurally sound formation. This has a lower conviction if we do not see a significant rejection from the area first (we are starting to see some of this as we have come off $32.7 from 13522). The maintained gap higher on 7/18 left a medium term bullish reversal intact below that warned of higher trade for days. We have seen $123.4 of this so far, but this has been on hold since we broke below the formation mentioned below. The solid penetration above 12417-21 warned of solid short covering in the days/weeks ahead. We have seen $119.7 of this so far, but this has been on hold since we broke below the formation mentioned below.
On a shorter-term basis: The decent break back below 13585 has brought in $41.8 of the decent profit taking we are looking for. The decent break below 13500 (+3 tics (30 cents) per/hour) projects this downward $13 minimum, $23 (+) maximum. We have seen $32.3 of this so far. This will come in at 13811 (+3 tics (30 cents) per/hour starting at 8:20am). Monday, we left a short term bearish reversal intact above that warns of decent pressure, likely for days. We have seen $19 of this so far from Monday’s close. Decent intra-day trade above 13471 will negate this. Trade above 13381-82 and 13403-05will warn of short covering. I would note that possible areas of exhaustion for this move down from 13624 come in at 13194-82 (we traded down to 13195 and have just bounced $18.7), 13048-19, and 12832-13. Decent trade below 13065(+.7 of a tic (7 cents) per/hour starting at 8:20am) will project this downward $60 (+); but this could use an initial bounce off the line before breaking below for better
For more info contact Michael:
Phone : 646-708-4612
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