Gold Tops $1273 as "Fire and Fury" Beget Fear, Loathing - Analysis

Fire and Fury Beget Fear and Loathing

"Trump's comments about North Korea have created nervousness and the fear is if the President really means what he said: "fire and fury"," said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets in London. "The typical text book trade is that investors rush for safe havens."

This Morning

Global markets switched to risk-off mode, with gold, bonds and the yen all rising. Overnight in Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.4 percent, while Japan’s Topix index dropped 1.1 percent as the yen rallied. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.9 percent lower at 5:30 a.m. Eastern Time, and the euro was trading at $1.1750. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries eased to 2.24 percent, S&P 500 futures were down 0.4 percent and gold was trading at $1268.50 in early hours... But then  

Gold Rally

Extending its overnight safe-haven buying within Asia, gold has spiked above recent highs - to its highest since early June - following President Trump's latest tweet on America's nuclear arsenal...

At the same time every effort is being made - by crushing VIX - to save stocks from a more perilous drop.


Moor Analytics Weekly

via Moor Analytics

Gold (Z) 8/8/17

On a longer timeframe, we are currently in a correction against the move down from 12988.  An area of possible exhaustion for this move up comes in at 12774-813…we have been holding this so far, and have rejected $20.5 from 12803.  The maintained gap higher on 7/18 left a medium term bullish reversal intact below that warns of higher trade for days—this was on hold with the break below 12664, but is now back in play with the break back above 12662 (from the formations mentioned below).  We have seen $34.3 of this so far.  The solid penetration above 12417-21 warns of solid short covering in the days/weeks ahead, with a good likelihood of a run back up toward 12980 (+).  We have seen $38.2 of this so far.  This will come in at 12485 today.

On a shorter-term basis:     The decent trade below 12665 (+1 tic per/hour) only brought in $6.7 of the $7.0 minimum, $16 (+) maximum we were looking for below, but I would no longer be looking for more as we broke back above the 12650-64 line mentioned below.   The decent trade below 12638 failed to bring in it’s downside projection before rallying back up through where it came in today at 12650-64, which now warns of decent short covering and a resumption of the bull calls. Decent trade above 12730 (-.6 of a tic per/hour starting at 8:20am) will project this upward $16 (+); but if we break above here decently and back below decently, look for decent profit taking to come in.  Trade below 12598 is a sign of renewed weakness.

Michael Moor

Email: Moor Analytics Phone: 646-708-4612


The Trades We See From The Analysis

This is Michael Moor's take in synopsis:

Right now we are still in a bear leg. A settlement over $1278 would negate that from  a short term perspective. Longer term  we may have a ways to go higher yet.

One way to incorporate these short vs. long term concepts into a couple trades would be: sell short as we approach $1278 the first time with a stop above for a day trade. Go home long if we close right above that level with a wider overnight stop looking for $1298 to book profits.

Gold has taken off post open and is butting up against a couple long wicks that were give-aways of trapped  longs. Momentum players or producer related selling is likely right where we are now. 


live chart HERE

Meanwhile... Isn't the USD a Safe Haven?

Sell the Dollar

For the first time since July 28th, following the post-FOMC surge to 1.19, EURUSD has dropped back to a 1.16 handle...


Sell the EURO Next?

As it appears the near-record long speculative position in the euro is starting to unwind...


The question is - what happens next? If EURO longs  unwind vs the USD,  and does that spell doom for this rally in Gold? Or is this rally a "safe haven" one in which both USD and Gold  rally.


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