- Memo to Comey by Trump puts the President's credibility in hot water
- Chances of a impeachment spike from 19% to 29% in a flash
- Gold rallies, the USD dumps, and stock markets begin to slide
Yesterday, another bombshell has been uncovered in the circumstances surrounding FBI director Comey's termination by POTUS Trump. It is apparent, the despite protestations to the otherwise, Trump sent a memo to Comey asking the director to CEASE INVESTIGATING MICHAEL FLYNN.
This is a contradiction in what already has been an incredulous line of logic shown by the white house in handling the situation. The result? Congress now wants to speak to Comey directly.
For our part, what started out as journalistic coverage eerily quiet in its coverage of the earlier circumstances surrounding Comey's dismissal, is now snowballing into something that pushes the limits of circumstantial evidence showing a pattern of potential abuse of office.
This in turn, as the law goes is quickly reaching critical mass to a point where 'discovery of sorts is going to happen. And not unlike the Gold manipulation cases, once that door is opened for people to get access to actual fact finding, the law excels. This is very bad for Trump. It is very bad for the US regardless of his innocence or guilt. It casts a large shadow of uncertainty on the USA as a stable government which may be headed towards a constitutional crisis.
The Dollar is lower, Gold is higher, and stocks are getting hit. While it is hard to state outright that the increase in uncertainty surrounding things is the cause of the market gyrations, it is a pattern worth watching.
The latest scandal to embroil the White House is moving markets, with the dollar bearing the brunt of the initial reaction. The euro traded over $1.11 this morning for the first time since early November, and the yen was trading at 112.41 to the dollar by 5:28 a.m. Eastern Time. Gold rallied. Overnight, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index declined 0.3 percent, while Japan's Topix index dropped 0.5 percent. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.3 percent lower at 5:35 a.m., with banks among the worst performers. S&P 500 futures slid 0.6 percent.
Markets are looking 2 steps ahead and according to PredictIt, Trump's odds of getting impeached in 2017 have soared from 19% to 29%, a 50% surge since the NYT story broke. Gold is up $11.00 this morning. And Stocks are lower with the USD.
IMPEACHMENT CHANCES SPIKE
Real Time Chart HERE
THE USD IS DOWN AND STOCKS ARE STARTING TO SUFFER.
Hourly Charts of Global Equities Reveal the Problem and confirm the Gold Rally is no Fluke. Take note of the VIX, which is up today. Every market is down starting last night with some gapping lower.
More interesting but little noted. Yesterday, the VIX was up even in a higher market. This suggests ALWAYS, that hedgers are coming in and is a sign of news leakage. Sometimes it is actually bullish in that it means stock holders have no intention of selling their holdings and are content to just buy puts.
But usually it means that for every person buying a put, there are 5 who are not hedging. Those people will be the ones dumping stocks in a washout. Be very careful here.
If the markets drop due to political uncertainty, then it will be closure that will make them rally. And that means no V shaped bottom. Certainty is a mile away once this impeachment stuff starts. We do not think you'll hear stories of Icahn buying at the bottom this time. In fact, we'd bet Carl is selling right now.
What Got Us Where We are This Morning
Meanwhile, another revelation: A memo from James Comey reportedly quotes Trump asking the former FBI director to drop the investigation of Michael Flynn. Now, Congress wants to hear from Comey directly.
Donald Trump is facing his deepest crisis yet after a memo written by then-FBI Director James Comey surfaced on Tuesday, alleging that the president asked him to drop an investigation of former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn. Democrats say that, if true, Trump's request could amount to obstruction of justice.
Noah Feldman, a professor of constitutional and international law at Harvard University, says that while it may not be a legal crime, that would still be an impeachable offence.
Further to that point, as Gold is rising now, concurrently with the odds of an impeachment process for the President beginning. We thought this counterintuitive. Allows us to explain our well thought out but wrong) logic. This is certainty happening. An impeachment reduces uncertainty. If anything once it is in the laws hands, markets should trust in the law as a stabilizing effect. Right? Apparently not.
SKG contributor and Corporate Executive 'George SpanaKopita' had this to add. In a word; he said WRONG. He goes on to explain here:
"That is the wrong way to look at it. Impeachment is not the end. It is the beginning. Who knows what more uncertainty could come of it. Worse still would be if thethreat of impeachment hangs over the President for 4 years and nothing happens. The US will be hamstrung in its effectiveness globally, domestic agendas will be sidelined, and uncertainty wil go from acute to chronic. A cancer on theAmerican psyche will take hold. No, the discussion of a potential impeachment is a precipitous rise in uncertainty. The markets are getting it right. And God forbid, an impeach meant process starts, who knows the depths of what it may uncover. Certainly what is found out will NOT encourage confidence in the US government.
Following the logic with which we agree: Certainty is a casualty already.
- Impeach and you see a long, painfully dragged out process in which the seaming underbelly of what goes on behind closed doors is revealed.
- Don't impeach but the threat looms is a cancer on our governments ability to function
The only way this ends well is an unimpeachable clarification that exonerates adn explains things. But we all know that is too late. The other way this ends is that whatever the issue truly is reaches critical mass quickly, and in doing so, the President resigns before the sausage factory is opened up to the public. The latter is what eventually happened to Nixon. The former, while far from honest, is what happened with Clinton.
Trump may not really want to have won the election. But he certainly will not allow himself to be fired. Scorched earth is his MO going as far back as the 1980s when he essentially told banks:
" You cant let me default. I will take you down with me if I do"
First it was CNN's Wolf Blitzer who brought up the possibility of impeaching President Trump in an interview with Independent Senator Angus King.
"If these allegations, Senator, are true are we getting closer and closer to the possibility of yet another impeachment process?" Blitzer asked.
"Reluctantly, Wolf, I have to say yes simply because obstruction of justice is such a serious offense," King responded.
It Gets Worse
That was just the beginning. From Zerohedge:
Shortly thereafter, a group of President Trump's most outspoken critics seized the Comey controversy to make a very early push for impeachment.
According to Fox News, the latest call came from Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, who released a statement suggesting Comey’s ouster from atop the FBI was an obstruction of the investigation “of the president’s campaign ties to Russian influence in his 2016 presidential election.” He said Trump has committed acts that “amount to intimidation and obstruction.”
“Our mantra should be I.T.N—Impeach Trump Now,” Green wrote in an email, which included a line in red pushing those who received the email to “forward this email to others who may be interested.”
Green joined other Democratic lawmakers like Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., who has been discussing impeachment for months. Waters took to Twitter in April saying that she would “fight every day until he’s impeached.” She later denied calling for impeachment, but on Thursday renewed her push during an interview with MSNBC’s Chris Hayes.
“I’ve said all along that he will lead us to impeachment, and he’s doing just that,” Waters said on MSNBC. “We’re fiddling while Rome is burning. This president needs to be impeached.”
Others Democratic lawmakers who have brought up the topic of impeachment include Reps. John Yarmuth, D-Ky., who told a local news station last week that Democrats were “actually pretty close to considering impeachment,” and Mark Pocan, D-Wis., who said on local radio that if there was an “impeachment clock,” Comey’s ouster would have moved it an “hour closer.”
Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., also joined the discussion, tweeting last week that “Impeachment will happen if a handful of Republicans in Congress join Dems to put country above party. Or in 2019 after Dems win the House.”
Events Leading up to Yesterday's News
In the aftermath of The Washington Post’s report that President Trump divulged top-secret information to Russian officials, National-Security Adviser H.R. McMaster issued a contradictory defense, claiming that Trump’s actions were “wholly appropriate,” and that he didn’t know where the information came from. Most of Trump’s defenders have emphasized that he didn’t know what he was doing. For his part, Trump tweeted that he wanted to share “facts pertaining to terrorism” with Russia, which, writes Julia Ioffe, could mean he’s playing into Putin’s hands. The consequences of this slip may be severe: It’s a breach of faith with the intelligence community and with U.S. allies.
WE will not even get into the circumstantially suspicious reality that one of Trump's advisors who suggested he fire Comey HAD ALREADY RECUSED HIMSELF DUE TO HIS OWN MISLEADING (LIES) UNDER OATH REGARDING THE SAME TOPIC. This alone is enough of a contradiction to cause more investigation, not of Trump but of the advisor who thought it appropriate to break his own recusal to write a memo suggesting Comey's termination. Bad stuff.
We are not fading the metals rally. Especially if the buyers are NON AMERICAN. This is highly probable as the Chinese and Russians are looking to get out of USD. This is one event that could make them buy strength as opposed to dips.
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