Good Morning: Stocks, Gold Up Slightly, Trump takes 5% Ohio Lead

Summary

Yesterday's close left the market facing something it has seen only once before. Since 1970 with the stock market above the 200DMA  it has had a 3 day pattern of: DN 2%, UP 1%, and Dn 1% only one other time. t oquote the identifier of the pattern: "I only interpret this study as...buckle up"

h/t  @SJD10304  and the chart used IN FOCUS below

  • Trump Has an undisputable lead in Ohio over Hillary of 5%- we think it is over as of Sunday
  • Global Bonds take a hit- highest yields since June
  • BOJ meets next week and more stimulus expected- the US Fed needs them to lead before we get QE4
  •  FWIW:A Trump victory is bearish for stocks, but not so much for the economy

-Soren K

Markets

We are trying easier formats to see the markets at a glance. Opinions welcome

In Focus Today

Stocks sit on the 20 Week MA- There is a trade here. We think buying a hedged call spread is the directionally agnostic way to go. This and what to make of Gold's behavior in our Technical Brief later this morning

Economic Calendar

DateTime (ET)StatisticForActualBriefing ForecastMarket ExpectsPriorRevised FromSep 132:00 PMTreasury BudgetAug-$107.1BNANA-$64.4B-Sep 147:00 AMMBA Mortgage Index09/104.2%NANA0.9%-Sep 148:30 AMExport Prices ex-ag.Aug-NANA0.3%-Sep 148:30 AMImport Prices ex-oilAug-NANA0.3%-Sep 1410:30 AMCrude Inventories09/10-NANA-14.513M-Sep 158:30 AMInitial Claims09/10-262K263K259K-Sep 158:30 AMContinuing Claims09/03-NANA2144K-Sep 158:30 AMRetail SalesAug--0.1%-0.1%0.0%-Sep 158:30 AMRetail Sales ex-autoAug-0.3%0.3%-0.3%-Sep 158:30 AMPPIAug-0.1%0.1%-0.4%-Sep 158:30 AMCore PPIAug-0.1%0.1%-0.3%-Sep 158:30 AMPhiladelphia FedSep-1.50.02.0-Sep 158:30 AMCurrent Account BalanceQ2--$123.1B-$122.8B-$124.7B-Sep 158:30 AMEmpire ManufacturingSep--1.00.0-4.2-Sep 159:15 AMIndustrial ProductionAug--0.2%-0.3%0.7%-Sep 159:15 AMCapacity UtilizationAug-75.6%75.7%75.9%-Sep 1510:00 AMBusiness InventoriesJul-0.1%0.1%0.2%-Sep 1510:30 AMNatural Gas Inventories09/10-NANA36 bcf-Sep 168:30 AMCPIAug-0.1%0.1%0.0%-Sep 168:30 AMCore CPIAug-0.2%0.2%0.1%-Sep 1610:00 AMMich SentimentSep-91.091.589.8-Sep 164:00 PMNet Long-Term TIC FlowsJul-NANA-$3.6B-

 

 

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