UPDATED: Trump Releases Economic, Other Policy Details

Politics

Gold Must Go Up. Trump's policies will only affect the manner in which Gold rises.

UPDATE: 2:40PM

Here is Trump's Initial Policy Outline. We thought it more efficient to just give you the table of contents.

Quick highlights: End Obamacare, Embrace Coal ( more energy in coal than oil by far, dirty as it is), Dismantle Dodd-Frank, Recapturing the Manufacturing Jobs lost, immigration reform (The Wall is in there) and other concepts consistent with our previous opinions. Better get that Canadian site up and running again!

Builders build. Enjoy

Click on link to be redirected

https://www.greatagain.gov/index.html

Then click icon at top right hand side of screen

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Making America Great Again
- Making America Secure Again
  - Defense & National Security
  - Immigration Reform & Building The Wall
  - Energy Independence
- Getting America Back To Work Again
  - Tax Reform
  - Regulatory Reform
  - Trade Reform
  - Education
  - Transportation & Infrastructure
  - Financial Services Reform
- Government for the People Again
  - Healthcare Reform
  - Veterans Administration Reform
  - Protecting Americans' Constitutional Rights

Mr. Trump will usher in inflation as it was experienced in the 1970's - there is no other possible outcome.
The market will follow its own trend and continue do so until said trend ends.
No President, and nor the Fed, can change this, but they could influence its timing and character.

“He is a builder/contractor at his core and he will SPEND on infrastructure like a drunken sailor. He will try to pass a stimulus package that makes FDR look like a piker."- Wall Street Banker April 2016

Background

The topic of gold's potential reaction to a Trump or Clinton victory has been discussed many times here over the past months. Our own group of writers had concluded that it was irrelevant who the president was, the die was cast.The current direction is up. The trick is knowing how to trade it.

A supercycle magnitude wave correction ended last December. Note that the candidates and their potential agendas were already well established while the correction was concluding, and thus the market kept going down regardless- which was necessary. At the moment, a second minute correction has concluded as of last night. It being a tiny segment in the upward progress of the first primary wave.

Gold Bulls

Trump won. Do not chase Gold, let it come back to your level. Trump will not get much done in his first 100 days. The legislative houses will block him at every turn giving opportunities to buy.

From April 2016- The Drunken Sailor Cometh
Trump would be the better candidate for gold if he could win and if his “Spend America Back To Greatness” ideas passed,
“He is a builder/contractor at his core and he will SPEND on infrastructure like a drunken sailor. He will try to pass a stimulus package that makes FDR look like a piker. Imagine handing the U.S. Treasury to a real estate developer? ... Sky (literally) is the limit.”
“Global monetary policy via ZIRP (zero interest-rate policy) or negative rates have failed. It will continue to fail. Fiscal stimulus is needed. That's where Donald excels. We will likely get inflation and higher Gold prices as his fiscal spending will outweigh any monetary tightening he does.

7/22/16:
ABN AMRO: Trump could drive Gold to $1800 an ounce.... but he wont win
Although Dutch bank ABN Amro thinks it unlikely, a Trump-run America would support gold prices simply because his policies would weaken the U.S. economy.
“In addition, his rhetoric and possible policy actions could create domestic and international uncertainty at best, and upheaval at worst,” said Georgette Boele, ABN Amro’s coordinator of forex and precious metals strategy, in a research report Friday.

The Fed is going to be Trump's and Gold's Nemesis

The last 10 Years have shown us what happens When Gold moves higher too Fast for the Fed's taste. It also shows us that the Fed's effectiveness is waning. Lastly, low volatility Gold gets the job done without headlines.

Gold Under Trump

Mr. Trump, in order to do what he says, will spend money and lots of it. He will not wish to do this by means of QE, as it is intended to go directly into the broad economy. QE is not this tool. He will have to direct the Treasury / Fed to issue debt, which he does not like to do, or resort to a novel means. This will be "helicopter money", as it was practiced in the 1950 - 1970's era to pay for various wars. There is no other way to raise the funds for the next 20 years.

Mr. Trump, is going to unleash inflation as it was experienced in the 1970s. As in the 1970s, gold was in an uptrend, and remember how it reacted then - it went up about 25x, but in an orderly fashion

What Will Not Happen- More of the Same

A Hillary administration would have been a continuation of monetary bucket kicking. Asset prices would continue to inflate until every inviolable law of math was suspended with no real organic economic success. That in the least we'd get stagflation.

What Will Happen- If Trump Doesn't Get Compromised

A Trump presidency could bring with it more fiscal spending and building if he had his way. The former would result in a "reset" of sorts after the laws of math ring the bell. The latter, properly executed, will bring inflation as well.

Two of our favorite phrases were brought to mind from this piece. The first was the hyperbolic: "If Trump wins he will spend like a drunken sailor", which is his desire. Developers develop.

The other phrase is "Government Intervention only truly helps in the direction of the trend". Andeven the government, in theform of the Fed, cannot help on the monetary side now.

Trump is Fiscal- Build, Build, Build

Mr. Trump advocates cutting a number of taxes, especially on the corporate side. He has pledged to increase the efficiency of government, but is somewhat equivocal about trying to reduce the size and scope of it. He is ardently opposed to regulations and does directly promise to drastically reduce or even eliminate many of them and the agencies responsible for them. This agenda is business friendly and would strongly aid the prospect of restoring economic growth to its former levels. Mr. Trump will require a staggering sum of money to do what he wants to do and he hates the Fed already. He will need the initial sum suggested by Wall Street and then more. This will come in fiscal Helicopter Money, Permanent Debt Monetization, and protective tarrifs.

Trump is Not Monetary- "No Fed for You!"

Trump will not favor it as a tool, nor will the Fed be as compliant as he'd like anyway. As an outsider, he has no connection to Wall Street, which provides him with neither moral or financial support, and he was not a recipient of even a penny of the sums already created in previous rounds of QE; moreover, he has been embroiled in disputes with some of these banks during insolvency proceedings. He is outspoken and hostile to the Fed, its actions, and its leaders. He has spoken on the stock and asset bubbles and identified the Fed as responsible for them. He has casually mentioned that he likes the idea of a gold standard, and went as far as saying the national debt must be defaulted on. Flippant remarks perhaps, but pretty strong stuff.

Trump Social Policy- Jobs for the Disenfranchised

His reason for existence lies within the ranks of the disenfranchised, insecurely and/or temporarily employed or unemployed working class, and even more so in a segment of this class which seems to have been rendered completely and permanently unemployable, for a broad variety of reasons. This class is his solid base of fervent support and if elected he will reward it. He will, if elected, seek reparations against the perpetrators responsible for past policy which hurt (seemingly by design) this class greatly. And they know it.

He will also seek higher employment, as fiscal spending and his social policy are dependent on it.

Don't be Fooled. The Boat Will Get to where it is Going

Conclusion: Gold will rise in a more steady manner. Volatility of price will be less than under Clinton. This applies after the initial spike postTrump's win. Let's face it, Trump will be hog-tied by the senate and locked in a closet for 30 days. That will not stop inflation. It will jsut give a dip to buy.

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